China could be the world’s top semiconductor foundry hub by 2030 — despite US curbs, nation to hold 30% of global installed capacity, surpassing Taiwan
Market research and tech consulting firm Yole Group predicts that China will have 30% of the world’s global foundry production capacity, making it the largest hub of semiconductor production. At the moment, Taiwan holds the highest output capacity at 23%, followed closely by China at 21%, South Korea at 19%, Japan at 13%, the U.S. at 10%, and Europe at 8%. According to Digitimes, China is expected to take the lead because of the massive investments in domestic semiconductor manufacturing, driven by Beijing’s goal of reaching self-sufficiency for its chip production.
In 2024, the East Asian country’s semiconductor production hit 8.85 million wafers per month, an increase of 15% from the previous year, and is projected to hit 10.1 million in 2025. China achieved this with the construction of 18 new fabs — for example, Huahong Semiconductor, and pure-play foundry based in Shanghai, just opened a 12-inch fab in Wuxi, with production beginning in the first quarter of this year.
The U.S. is the largest consumer of wafers, accounting for about 57% of global demand. However, it holds just around 10% of global production capacity, meaning it must source the rest of its supply from other major producers like Taiwan, South Korea, and China. On the other hand, Digitimes says that Japan’s and Europe’s production largely satisfies internal demand. There are other producers out there, too, like Singapore and Malaysia, which make up around 6% of global foundry capacity. These companies are largely foreign-owned, though, and exist to satisfy the demand in areas like the U.S. and China.
It seems that the report does not consider the fabs that are under construction in the United States, though. Several companies have started construction in the U.S., TSMC chief among them, with the company expecting to build 30% of its advanced chips in Arizona. Intel, Samsung, Micron, GlobalFoundries, and Texas Instruments also have projects underway, which will add to the U.S. wafer production capacity.
Additionally, the report did not specify how the technological capabilities of China’s fabs compare to those of their Western counterparts. The U.S. has been putting export controls on the most advanced chip-making tech, making it harder for Chinese companies to acquire the necessary equipment to produce the latest chips. Because of this, Beijing is pouring billions of dollars into helping fill in the gaps in its semiconductor industry, like lithography tools and electronic design automation (EDA) software. So, even though China will likely have the upper hand when it comes to output capacity, the question of which country will have the greatest capability of producing cutting-edge chips in the near future is still up in the air.
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