If the United States imposes a 25% tariff on semiconductors, the revenue of Korean semiconductor companies could decrease by 4.3%, a stock analyst forecasted.

Song Myung-seop, a researcher at iM Securities, stated in a report on April 7, “If a 25% individual tariff is imposed on semiconductors in the future, the semiconductor purchasing costs for U.S. set companies will rise by 25%.” He added, “Assuming that one-third of this, or 8.3%, is passed on to customers through price increases, and the remaining 16.7% is shared equally between set and semiconductor companies, Korean semiconductor companies would experience an 8.3% price drop.”

Song noted that while the direct negative impact on total revenue is only 1.3-1.7%, given that 15-20% of Korean semiconductor companies’ sales are directly exported to the U.S., it is necessary to consider indirect effects. These include the export of IT sets produced in China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, which include Korean semiconductors, to the U.S., where high tariffs are imposed.

He predicted, “The U.S. accounts for 56%, 10%, and 25% of the global server, smartphone, and PC markets, respectively. Considering the average tariff rate of 44% on China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, the prices of global server, smartphone, and PC sets will increase by 25%, 4%, and 11%, respectively.” Assuming that semiconductor companies bear one-third of this cost increase, Song projected that semiconductor prices would decrease by 8%, 1%, and 4% in servers, smartphones, and PCs, respectively.

Considering the proportion of each application in the sales of Korean semiconductor companies, Song predicted that the tariff imposition would lead to a 4.3% decrease in their revenue. However, he noted that this does not include the impact of IT consumption slowdown and reduced semiconductor orders due to price increases, estimating that the actual impact of tariffs on Korean semiconductor companies’ performance would be around 6%.