Source: TradingView

The last time this setup occurred, the ETF surged 145% in the following uptrend. Now, with NVIDIA Corp NVDA, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd TSM and Broadcom Inc AVGO all in breakout mode, traders are wondering: is history about to repeat?

Read Also: Nvidia Just Became The World’s Most Valuable Stock; Is It Time For A Semiconductor ETF Rethink?

SMH’s rally is being powered by its top holdings.

• Nvidia, which makes up 21.5% of the ETF, is up 14.5% in the past month, riding the AI server boom and record insider buzz.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (11.4% of SMH) has surged 19.4%, buoyed by massive chip demand and strong guidance.
• Broadcom (9.9% of SMH) isn’t far behind, up 8.9%, after delivering earnings that showcased accelerating AI infrastructure revenue.

Combined, these three giants account for over 42% of SMH’s assets — and they’re all trending higher together.

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

Trading at $275.84, SMH is comfortably above its:

• 8-day SMA: $272.41
• 20-day SMA: $263.62
• 50-day SMA: $241.69
• 200-day SMA: $240.17

That’s a full-stack bullish setup. The MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) reads 9.86, and RSI (relative strength index) has ticked above 70, reflecting strong buying momentum, though nearing overbought levels.

Last time this golden cross pattern formed, SMH launched into a 144%+ rally over the following year. With the sector’s fundamentals aligned around AI, chips and hyperscaler demand, another big move could be on the cards.

If you missed the last semiconductor melt-up, this golden cross may be your second shot. Just be warned — RSI is signaling heat, so timing matters.

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