The 2024 Six Nations enters its final weekend with the championship still on the line. After England beat Ireland in the last round of fixtures it means that a possible four teams can still claim the title.
On ‘Super Saturday’, March 16, England head to France with Scotland facing Ireland in Dublin. It is mathematically possible for any of those teams to win, though Ireland are the heavy favourites with England next best, though very much outsiders. Ireland will be aiming for a second successive title whilst England target their first since 2020.
With Ireland playing first and only needing two points to retain their crown, it is possible that by the time England begin in Lyon, they will be playing to confirm second place. The last time Ireland lost to Scotland was in 2017 and not since 2001 have they beaten Ireland by more than seven points in the Six Nations.
Italy and Wales face off in Cardiff for what is in effect the Wooden Spoon match. Wales centre George North has announced that he will retire from international rugby after Saturday’s game.
How to watch the 2024 Six Nations on TV
Fixtures this year are being shown on both the BBC and ITV in the UK. Live streams are available for free on BBC iPlayer and ITVX apps, and can be downloaded on mobile or tablet devices.
The long-term future of the Six Nations on free-to-air TV is uncertain after the British Government rejected calls to add the tournament to the list of sporting events that must be shown for free. That has caused consternation from seasoned observers like Martin Bayfield, who believes the tournament is not being properly promoted.
2024 Six Nations fixtures and results in full
All times GMT
Round one
Round two
Round three
Round four
Round five
Saturday, March 16: Wales v Italy
Kick-off: 2.15pm
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (Fra)
Channel: BBC
Saturday, March 16: Ireland v Scotland
Kick-off: 4.45pm
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Referee: Matthew Carley (Eng)
Channel: ITV
Saturday, March 16: France v England
Kick-off: 8pm
Venue: Groupama Stadium, Lyon
Referee: Angus Gardner (Aus)
Channel: ITV
What are the final-round permutations?
The table and the situation is heavily in Ireland’s favour with England as only outside bets. Scotland and France can still win the title but their chances are even more improbable than Steve Borthwick’s men.
The easy way…
The simplest way for Ireland to win a second successive title is for them to win or draw against Scotland or to lose but secure two bonus points – by losing by fewer than seven points and scoring four tries.
The simplest way for England to claim the Six Nations is for Ireland to lose to Scotland without a bonus point, leaving them on 16 points. England would then need to beat France and score at least four tries to get that bonus point to move to 17 points and claim the Six Nations.
The complicated way…
There are, however, plenty of complicated permutations outside of those two occurrences. If Ireland lose but take just a single bonus point then that means England need a bonus-point win over France, as well as overturning the margin of 83 when it comes to points difference.
That is unlikely. Scoring four tries would mean at least 20 points for Ireland and Scotland have never, in 141 Tests, scored more than 38 against Ireland. Meanwhile, a losing bonus point, by its very nature, means losing by a narrow margin.
If Ireland lose without a bonus point and England beat France without taking a bonus point themselves then it is back to points difference. Again, because Ireland are on +80 points difference and England on -3 then the margins need to be of record level to be overturned.
This means that for England to win the title, if Ireland score a single bonus point of any kind, they need an historically large victory over Les Bleus. If it is a losing bonus point alone Ireland get, then England need to beat France by 76 points to claim the title.
In the scenario where Ireland and England end up on 17 points each and tied on points difference, the Six Nations would be decided by the total number of tries scored, which has myriad permutations. If they are level on points, points difference and tries scored (including penalty tries), the Six Nations championship will be shared.
The even more complicated way… for Scotland or France to win
Scotland and France can still technically claim victory, but the chances of that happening needs events to conspire in an extremely unlikely way. In other words for Scotland or France to claim the championship they need to claim a bonus point win, without their opponents scoring a losing bonus point and overturning a points difference of 76 to Ireland (they are both on +4 points difference) without the other team winning their game.
Got it?