As the U.S. presidential election approaches in November, candidates are ramping up pressure on China, raising concerns about the South Korean semiconductor industry. The U.S. is tightening export controls on quantum computing and next-generation semiconductors, leaving South Korean semiconductor companies caught between the two superpowers in a difficult position.
According to industry sources on September 9, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) under the U.S. Department of Commerce has decided to implement export controls on cutting-edge technologies such as quantum computing and next-generation semiconductors. The new control list includes the Gate All Around (GAA) process technology used in Samsung Electronics’ foundry division to manufacture advanced semiconductors of 3 nanometers or less.
South Korea is not included in the list of Export Control Exemption Countries (IEC). However, as a member of the Wassenaar Arrangement, South Korea is subject to the “presumption of approval” principle when applying for export licenses. The government and industry believe that since Samsung Electronics is already operating the GAA process stably, there will not be many additional technologies or equipment needed from the U.S. in the future.
The issue is that the prolonged U.S.-China trade conflict increases uncertainty in corporate management. The U.S. could expand the scope of export controls or increase the number of participating countries. If AI semiconductor export controls are expanded, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) could also be subject to restrictions.
China’s retaliation is also a point of concern. Last August, China imposed export controls on key minerals such as germanium and gallium, which are essential in semiconductor and electronic product manufacturing. This move led to more than a doubling of germanium prices in Europe, significantly affecting semiconductor production. For South Korean companies, the potential impact of the U.S.-China trade conflict cannot be ignored.
Kim Hyuk-joong, an associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, pointed out, “Given the rapidly growing nature of the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor industry, it could have significant long-term ripple effects,” adding, “As AI semiconductor technology advances quickly, the range of semiconductors subject to export controls could increase.”
This underscores the importance of diplomatic efforts by the government. Kim emphasized, “If the U.S. suddenly imposes export controls, companies have no time to respond,” and added, “The government should secure as much grace period as possible to give companies time to respond or help them predict export controls.”
